Projects
Projects: Projects for Investigator |
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| Reference Number | NIA_WWU_011 | |
| Title | Long term demand forecasting for peak days | |
| Status | Completed | |
| Energy Categories | Fossil Fuels: Oil Gas and Coal(Oil and Gas, Refining, transport and storage of oil and gas) 100%; | |
| Research Types | Applied Research and Development 100% | |
| Science and Technology Fields | PHYSICAL SCIENCES AND MATHEMATICS (Applied Mathematics) 75%; ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Mechanical, Aeronautical and Manufacturing Engineering) 25%; |
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| UKERC Cross Cutting Characterisation | Not Cross-cutting 100% | |
| Principal Investigator |
Project Contact No email address given Wales and West Utilities |
|
| Award Type | Network Innovation Allowance | |
| Funding Source | Ofgem | |
| Start Date | 01 April 2014 | |
| End Date | 01 September 2014 | |
| Duration | 5 months | |
| Total Grant Value | £90,029 | |
| Industrial Sectors | Technical Consultancy | |
| Region | Wales | |
| Programme | Network Innovation Allowance | |
| Investigators | Principal Investigator | Project Contact , Wales and West Utilities (100.000%) |
| Web Site | http://www.smarternetworks.org/project/NIA_WWU_011 |
|
| Objectives | To provide a sense check for our current peak demand forecasts and to develop an alternative approach to forecasting peak demand. This will enable us to operate the network more efficiently and may allow us to release NTS Exit Capacity that we are potentially holding unnecessarily and will avoid the need for unnecessary investment. The production of forecasts with supporting methodology to demonstrate a defendable view for the next few years. The delivery of a piece of software which is suitably developed / documented so as to be able to be used in future years with revised parameters if necessary. | |
| Abstract | The peak day demand forecasting methodology needs to be updated due to uncertainty and volatility in recent forecasts. There is a general expectation that annual consumption will reduce because of a number of factors including fuel prices and increased efficiencies with insulation and new boilers; however, there is little confidence that the impacts will be as significant at peak I in 20 demands . Due to a lack of confidence in existing forecasting processes we are currently maintaining a conservative position in assuming no reductions at peak 1 in 20 demands in the next few years. This may be resulting in us sterilizing NTS capacity and could lead to inefficient investment in both the WWU and NTS networks. Rather than developing new bottom up forecasting models to model peak demand this approach takes the WWU peak demand 2010 as a baseline and considers how domestic demand would change taking into account: 1) Temperatures falling below those experienced in 2010 and whether this would result in increased peak gas usage2) Net increases in domestic new build3) Retrofitting of higher levels of thermal insulation in housing stock4) Retrofitting of high efficiency combination boilers in place of older boilers5) Changes in domestic customer behavior Segmentation of the domestic market may be appropriateNon temperature sensitive demand will be forecast by other methods and the portion of non-domestic load that is temperature sensitive will be assumed to unchanged as a first approximationNote : Project Documents may be available via the ENA Smarter Networks Portal using the Website link above | |
| Publications | (none) |
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| Final Report | (none) |
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| Added to Database | 10/09/18 | |
